THE SIREN CALL OF WAR IN THE NEW YEAR

by Jehan Perera
Sri Lanka’s neigbourhood gave an indication of the directions open to the country in the new year. In Nepal, the government and Maoist rebels came to an amicable negotiated agreement on the abolishing of the monarchy and establishing a federal state. Maoist leader Prachanda is also reported to have advised the LTTE to give up violence and enter into the democratic process. On the other hand, the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan showed how violence can suddenly change the political landscape and add to a chaotic situation from which it is going to be difficult to re-emerge. If Christmas symbolizes the never ending hope of humanity for redemption from evil circumstances and for a new beginning, such sentiment was not in evidence during the Christmas season from either the Government of Sri Lanka or the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam who continued their pitched battles for territory without any let up. The major casualties reported came in the ground battles, but there were also sea battles and air bombing. The Christmas spirit of love, peace and joy was also far from the utterances of top government leaders at the close of the old year. This may account for Prime Minister Ratnasiri Wickramanayake’s assertion that the new year would be dedicated to the comprehensive defeat and total elimination of the LTTE. In a statement given prominence in the state media he pledged that the celebrations for 2008 would be on account of the LTTE being totally destroyed and wiped out to restore peace and dignity to all communities. Members of the government appear to be confident that a relatively short time frame is required for the defeat of the LTTE. Army Commander General Sarath Fonseka posited that a kill rate of 10 per day would be able to ensure the defeat of the LTTE’s remaining 3000 to 5000 cadres in the Wanni. The key target appears to be Kilinochchi which is the current administrative capital of the LTTE. The capture of Kilinochchi would indeed be a big psychological blow to the LTTE. They would lose many of the trappings of the separate state they aspire to, which includes large buildings. At present Kilinochchi houses the LTTE’s administrative offices in which dignitaries from outside are hosted. Bt there is a serious danger that the government may be miscalculating the LTTE’s tenacity as a guerilla force and the Tamil people’s own commitment to a federal political solution, which the present government leadership has repeatedly said is impossible to offer. Although the LTTE stands severely discredited in the eyes of most of the world, and justifiably so, it still continues to be a formidable fighting machine. The LTTE has shown itself still capable of mobilising its cadres for suicide attacks. As an independent state of Tamil Eelam appears out of sight, the suffering and discrimination suffered by Tamil people is likely to be the continuing motivating factor. SERIOUS DANGER Top government leaders have been asserting that in a matter of a few months, less than a year, the war could be over. They are confident that the big powers of the world are behind them on account of the much bigger US-led war against terrorism. Although the US has moved to put restrictions on place against direct military aid to Sri Lanka on account of human rights abuses, its allies such as Pakistan stand ready to fill any military vacuum. Indirect Indian blessings to the government may be seen on account of the forthcoming visit to Sri Lanka of Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to be the chief guest at the country’s 60th anniversary of Independence. As a result of their confidence the government does not appear to be interested in the slightest in trying to revive the peace process. Instead Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa has said that the government can make a fresh start to address Tamil grievances by banning the LTTE and abolishing the Ceasefire Agreement which he said has become a joke. New proposals for a political solution would be put forward by the government after this was done, he said, although it is not clear why those proposals cannot be put forward before such actions are taken which would be the better course. Before the hubris of military victories clouds the judgment of the government leadership, there is a need to recall that even greater defeats inflicted on the LTTE in the past did not end the war. In 1995, the government under President Chandrika Kumaratunga’s leadership recaptured Jaffna city which had been under LTTE control and been made its administrative capital for close on five years. There was much jubilation in the government and the people were made to believe that the war would end soon. But it did not. On the contrary, after the capture of Jaffna the country was to experience the most costly phase of the war with the fall of major military bases, such as Mullaitivu, at the cost of thousands of lives and the loss of long range artillery guns and tanks. As the government forces spread thin to physically occupy more territory, their ability to defend themselves and government property against guerilla attack diminished. The country may be heading for a similar situation today, even though the LTTE has been broken up in the east and the government has access to superior surveillance and bunker busting bombs unlike in the past. The LTTE attack on the Anuradhapura airforce base two months ago was a harsh reminder of the cost of war both in terms of the lives lost and the aircraft destroyed.
The attack on the Anuradhapura air force base was also an indication that the theatre of military action cannot be confined to the contested north and east of the country. This has been seen in previous instances as well, such as the LTTE attack on Katunayake International Airport in 2001 and numerous bomb attacks in Colombo. While the political impact of the Anuradhapura disaster was contained by the government’s subsequent killing of LTTE political wing leader Thamilselvan, the economic consequences are being felt in the spiraling cost of living. Apart from the human cost, the economic cost of the attack will mean further and longer impoverishment of the country and its people. INHERENT DANGER The government appears to be glossing over these lessons from the past also on account of its dependence on its nationalist allies. The budget vote two weeks ago showed that the government no longer enjoys majority support in Parliament. It was the JVP’s abstention from the budget vote that gave the government its victory. But the JVP’s longer term support to the government is contingent on the government catering to the JVP’s own agenda of militaristic nationalism which is composed of anti minority and anti Western sentiment. Although the government may wish to present an acceptable political proposal to win the support of the international community and a section of the Tamil people, the JVP may continue to block it. Significantly Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa’s pronouncements on banning the LTTE and abrogating the Ceasefire Agreement conform to two of the JVP’s demands made prior to the budget vote and made a condition for their support. When the JVP initially made these demands the government resisted them, perhaps on account of its unwillingness to displease the international community by so clearly shutting the door to any prospects of a negotiated political settlement with the LTTE. However, it now appears that the government is ready to make the call of the JVP its own. Therefore it appears that the government is being compelled, by its own choices and the pressures exerted on it by its allies, to base its political future on the hope of a military victory. Any failure to make a military breakthrough in the next several months will mean that the government will find itself in a politically unsustainable position, with the economy in downward spiral. The danger inherent in the government’s position, especially in the event of a total rejection of the past peace process with the LTTE, is that it is paving the way for a fight to the finish where the costs can be terribly high, success is not guaranteed, and no fall back position will be available. If a situation of crisis and military stalemate develops, the only way out for the country will be a change of government policy in which the leadership is held by those committed to democratic values and to a negotiated political settlement. Such a problem solving leadership will also need to believe in the age old teaching that the sun shines on those deemed to be good and bad alike, and therefore uphold the need for peaceful coexistence as in Nepal. Sri Lanka does have such a leadership, although they are not in positions of power in the government at the present time.
End